OPINION

Travels in war and peace:
who are the real winners?

As the Middle East shuts down with the Iran conflict, East-West travel will seek fresh airline routings around an ugly conflict, offering the option of alternative stopovers. Domestic travel will continue to grow.

by Vijay Verghese/ Editor

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As the Middle Eastern skies empty, airlines like Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines and THAI Airways International will step in to reroute Australia-UK traffic, in the process creating opportunities for interesting stopovers with imaginative pricing./ map: FlightAware 1 Mar 2026

AS Middle Eastern airports shuttered down following the attack on Iran and the swift counter strikes across the region, the skies over a vast swathe of West Asia suddenly went silent as smoke rose from Dubai to Doha. A quick scan of FlightAware showed zero activity around Imam Khomeini International Airport. Iran was off the flight map. And UAE and Israel airports had gone dark 28 February 2026 stranding thousands of passengers and tossing a massive wrench in the works of some of the world’s busiest transit airports.

Whatever the outcome, it will take a while for travel to recover from the shock. There is no clean or fast exit from this sordid theatre. The strikes launched by the US will likely set in motion fresh sectarian strife and political vendettas as socio-ethnic-religious fault lines emerge in the ensuing free-for-all. There will be retaliation — sponsored and freelance — against US interests elsewhere, further muddying the travel waters.

Trump’s call for the Iranian people to rise up is misguided. Urging unarmed civilians to go against a well trained Revolutionary Guard is irresponsible and dangerous. In his words: “When we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.” Yet, without boots on the ground — which opens up another can of worms — this is a recipe for disaster. And given the various ethnic groupings and split regional loyalties, who is supposed to rise up and assume power?

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Regime change is not effected by mere whim. It needs definable provocation, a moral raison d'être, and more than just some hastily cobbled emperor’s-new-clothes consensus — the UN of course would never mandate such an action. And if history is anything to go by, successful revolution and change happens ground up, never top down. Casual head-of-state assassination sets a dangerous precedent. It will strengthen the hardline hand and pose serious risks for future travellers keen on exploring the country's storied past.

{Long-term, the routing switch will encourage better offers on stopovers and city tours — Hong Kong and Singapore are always hungry for this...

Iran has strong institutions that will likely carry what remains of the government through the tumult until the next phase presents itself. This opens up the possibility of another round of even greater repression. But it will take clear heads, not global vacillation, to manage the Iran crisis while also putting the brakes on Israel’s overt demands for ‘lebensraum’ — a sad twist on its own dark past and echoing an ugly Nazi playbook.

What does all this augur for travel?

First, the huge UK-Australia route is in a shambles and traffic is going to have to find a way around, likely through Hong Kong, Bangkok or Singapore. These are the well oiled transit points that are already handling some of this traffic. But even Mumbai or New Delhi might pitch their hats in the ring with Air India seeking to make a comeback. Kuala Lumpur is another viable option.

Short term, Cathay Pacific, THAI Airways International, and Singapore Airlines will benefit from this windfall. Passengers can expect to pay higher fares with rising fuel costs and longer routings, though competition between the major hub cities will bring prices down eventually once the initial backlog is cleared. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Persian Gulf as the transit noose tightens and oil prices climb.

This switch in routing will come with better offers on stopovers and city tours — Hong Kong and Singapore are always hungry for this — while Bangkok, already filled to bursting, is on everyone's bucket list. Middle East destinations that have worked hard for decades burnishing reputations as safe and exciting tourism havens will need to rebuild their tattered brands and compete aggressively to recapture their markets. That will come later.

For general travellers there may understandably be some hesitancy in committing to long-haul flights. People know war gets trigger fingers itching. Memory is short but the ghosts linger of Iran Air (flight 655 shot down July 1988 by the USS Vincennes over the Persian Gulf), Korean Air Lines (flight 007 shot down September 1983 by Soviet fighter jets over Sakhalin), Siberian Airlines (flight 1812 October 2001 shot down by Ukraine over the Black Sea), and Malaysian Airlines (MH17 July 2014 shot down over Eastern Ukraine by Russian forces according to UN investigators).

As in our recent editorial on the U-turn in travel to the United States following the emergence of the Great Immigration Firewall, many travellers will prefer to focus on domestic markets (especially in China, India and Europe), with much travel switching from the US to favour Japan, South Korea, Taipei, Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia and Southeast Asia. As we wrote: “In much of Asia, international political uncertainty and travel barriers have translated into vibrant self-discovery.”

That mood of self-discovery will sustain business in several markets, boosting hotel occupancies and building national awareness for travellers. As the global village untangles, the go-domestic trend is likely to amplify, a trend set in motion by Covid staycations. The unpredictable nature of world economics in the heat of the tariff tirade has left consumers overly cautious and sensitive to price. Thrift is the order of the day. Yet amidst this seeming chaos, deals will emerge as airlines and hotels race to adjust to changing market realities. Unpredictability makes for a stronger bargaining position for travellers who should be on the lookout for fast moving short term deals.

Remember, airline seats and hotel beds are perishable. A bargain bed is better than an unprofitable dead bed. Hotels, already stampeded into best-price click-and-book overreach by Google and social media — as their posh brand image takes a back seat — will be more receptive on flexi rates. Travel can be at its most rewarding when disruption is afoot, not when the machine is greased and humming. And this is where a genuine travel revolution may happen to correct the post-Covid price spikes. Ground up. Travel safe.