Mapping travel risks with an eye on weather, terror, and terrain

Safeture's 2005 Risk Map looks at a variety of factors in this depiction of the world in colours ranging from deep green (no risk) to red (high risk). Travellers need to consider weather as well as political tensions and possible wars.

AS the global village confronts new threats of tariff wars and political uncertainty, tourism has become increasingly imperilled. Travel advisories have mushroomed and not just for the usual safety reasons. In the US, run-of-the-mill visas for study or travel are far from guaranteed, and European states are abuzz with warnings for transgendered travellers who may be denied entry overseas.

Gone are the days when excited discussions on the world’s most dangerous places threw up names like the Bolivian ‘death road’, gun-crazy Lebanon, Papua New Guinea, Snake Island (Brazil, yes, covered in slithering snakes), the unforgiving Danakil Desert (Ethiopia, Eritrea) notorious for its heat and endless robberies, beautiful but unsafe Guatemala, or the less known Oymyakon in Siberia with a population of 500 and cryogenic lows of minus 70C.

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There has been pushback against overtourism too in once idyllic spots like Venice, Amsterdam, Bruges, Santorini and heritage districts from Japan to Bali. This is becoming a universal phenomenon as communities seek to find their roots and preserve ancient ways overwhelmed by Instagram ‘influencers’ and tourist litter.

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Such is the demand for safety profiling that companies like Safeture (safeture.com) offer detailed risk assessment maps of various kinds for corporations or individuals on a worldwide — or even city by city — basis. Its 2025 Risk Map (pictured above) makes for disturbing viewing with red and orange areas it deems high and critical risk touching practically every region from Latin America to the farthest reaches of the Indonesian archipelago.

{“Holidaymakers offer a convenient soft target. They are difficult to protect. Their movements are unpredictable and therefore hard to plot on models...”

The Dragonfly Terrorism Tracker (www.esri.com) is another index that has carefully logged worldwide incidents and plots since January 2007.

Of course, risk mapping based on empirical data is not a guaranteed future reckoner as the coldblooded 22 April tourist shooting in Indian Kashmir has highlighted. In the summer of 1995 six foreigners were kidnapped from the picturesque Pahalgam area of Kashmir — not far from the current incident — the chilling details meticulously researched and recounted in The Meadow by Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott Clark. Was this a grim foretelling?

Quite unforeseen were the Bali blasts in 2002 that killed 202 (88 of them Australians), the Sharm El Sheikh bombings mid 2005 that left 88 dead, the 2008 Mumbai terror plot when the historic Taj Mahal Palace Mumbai was commandeered by hit-squad gunmen, and the 2015 hail of bullets at a Tunisian beach resort that killed 38 people, most of them British tourists.

Holidaymakers offer a convenient soft target. They are difficult to protect. Their movements are unpredictable and therefore hard to plot on analytic models. Travel risks are varied too. Closed off air spaces from time to time — from Russa to the Middle East and India-Pakistan — have caused tedious rerouting and higher airfares for certain airlines. Countries may close borders suddenly due to war or political pique. Norway, Finland, Poland and the three Baltic states have blocked all tourist visas for Russians. More recently the Maldives, which advertises its “sunny side of life”, banned all Israeli passport holders in response to the ongoing bombings in Gaza.

The Global Terrorism Index (www.visionofhumanity.org) from the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) makes for interesting viewing. It looks at the “impact of terrorism for 163 countries covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population”. According to this index, in 2025 Burkina Faso ranked the No.1 most dangerous place in the world with other Top 10 places to watch including Pakistan, Syria, Mali, Niger, Israel, and Afghanistan. Curiously, the United States is at No.34, just above Bangladesh at No.35.

The IEP also offers an interesting Positive Peace Index (www.visionofhumanity.org). The IEP defines positive peace as “the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies.” It is a worthy exercise that points to the world’s safest spots, relying not on reported incidents but social strength and openness. The Top 10 list here is led by Finland, followed by Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Ireland, New Zealand, Iceland, Netherlands and Australia. Japan ranks No.13 with Singapore at No.14.

At the end of the day you cannot beat common sense. Stay abreast of current affairs and weather events and consult with local friends about food, hygiene, safety (women’s safety in particular), political hotspots, and common scams. Instagram posts of people posing at the edge of vertiginous cliffs or leaning out of trains for a photo-op kiss unmindful of telegraph poles swishing past murderously, are not the best sort of items for to-do lists.

Yet, many still crave danger and pay good money to place themselves in harm’s way, putting their faith in adventure operators like Untamed Borders (untamedborders.com/) that runs tours to dodgy corners of Afghanistan, Somalia, Algeria, Libya, Syria, Pakistan and Yemen. The more sensible will curl up with a pet at home to safely watch the ‘World’s Most Dangerous Roads’ (hu.co.uk/shows) that pairs celebrities and comedians on motoring adventures in insane locations. Meanwhile, keep an eye on the news and travel safe.

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